ValleyWatch

June 13, 2011-By Heidi Cullen in Huffington Post

My phone tends to ring a lot more when the weather is bad. I often get calls from reporters and producers who usually ask me the same question a bunch of different ways. “Is this global warming?” “Is climate change to blame?” “Is the weather getting worse?”

These are big — almost existential — questions. I suspect they are a polite way of asking, “Is this our fault?”

This picture shows the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers in late April when both Rivers flooded at the same time. Cairo, IL is shown just right of the center of the picture. A levy in Missouri had to be destroyed just out of the picture on the left to save Cairo in early May. Photo © 2011 John Blair.

Climate scientists approach the question a little differently. We want to test how global warming shifts the odds of a severe weather event. Just like medical researchers do with cigarette smoking and lung cancer. In fact, this line of climate research comes straight out of epidemiology. In essence, we’re doing autopsies on extreme weather events to find out what made them so bad-ass.

Depending on the type of extreme weather event, my answer can be short or long, straightforward or complicated. Keep in mind, all weather is now born into an environment that is warmer and moister because of man-made greenhouse gas pollution. But we don’t always know what influences (man-made or natural) will win out on any given day.

Events like droughts, wildfires, heat waves and heavy downpours get my short answer. We know they are going to become more frequent, more intense, and last longer. In fact, we can already see this playing out in historical data. (For a complete overview, check out the “Global Climate Change Impacts in the US“, as well as some newly published research summarized here.)

Tornadoes get the long answer. Will they become more frequent, more intense? Will Tornado Alley get bigger? Will the season last longer? Jeff Masters and Andrew Freedman have both done a great job laying out the state of the research.

The bottom line is that two of the key ingredients that go into making a tornado are expected to change as a result of global warming — water vapor (moisture in the atmosphere) and wind shear (changing wind speed and direction with height). Thanks in part to warmer oceans, water vapor has already increased about 4% and it will continue to increase as the planet warms — providing more fuel for storms. But wind shear may decrease and that could mean fewer tornadoes. So which influence wins out — increasing water vapor or decreasing wind shear? We don’t know yet. Continue reading →

Multimedia op-ed by Bill McKibben and Stephen Thomson. Written version first appeared in the Washington Post.

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June 6, 2011-by John Blair, valleywatch.net editor

After failing to notify the public last week when Ozone levels soared to unsafe levels on Thursday as they are required to do under an agreement with the Federal Government, the City of Evansville did issue a warning that zone levels were expected to exceed those considered safe under the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for the chemical Ozone on Tuesday June 7.

Levels significantly exceeded the health based standard on Thursday, June 2, averaging 79.38 parts per billion over eight hours at a monitor in St. Phillips, well over the standard of 75 PPB. In that event, levels reached as high as 85 PPB over one hour.

Ozone is formed when pollutants know as volatile organic compounds or VOC and Nitrogen Oxides are emitted from industries and vehicles which combine with sunlight to form the poisonous gas Ozone which has three oxygen atoms (O3). Animals, including humans require an oxygen molecule (O2) to breathe.

People can help reduce the level of ozone formation by not doing those things that release either NOX or VOC.  In Evansville, for instance, people can ride public transit for free on Ozone alert days. Other measures include reducing energy use, not filling your gas tank until the evening when the sun does not cook Ozone.

Other measures like refusing to use drive-up windows are also useful. Continue reading →

June 3, 2011-by Ben Geman in The Hill’s Energy and Environment Blog

A top Navy official said Friday that the department isn’t interested in developing coal-based transportation fuels as an alternative to oil, noting there are more promising options.

Illustration by John Blair

Tom Hicks, the Navy’s deputy assistant secretary for energy, testified at a House hearing on sweeping GOP legislation that includes a requirement that the Defense Department construct and operate a coal-to-liquids plant.

He criticized the provision mandating the coal-to-liquids development.

“In addition to requiring large new sources of coal, it requires enormous quantities of water, $5 [billion] to $10 billion in capital per plant to provide a fuel result that is more than twice as carbon-intensive as petroleum,” Hicks said in testimony before a House Energy and Commerce Committee panel.

Coal currently provides roughly half of U.S. electric power, but the coal industry and many Republicans have pushed for development of plants that can make transportation fuels from coal — an effort that environmentalists fiercely oppose.

Hicks instead touted the prospect of next-wave biofuels made from sources like camelina crops, corn stover and algae that can help reduce the military’s massive — and expensive — thirst for oil.

“The U.S.-based companies comprising the advanced biofuels industry … are currently producing or will soon be producing fuels across a spectrum from the tens of thousands of gallons to the tens of millions of gallons per year,” he said. (Go to Original) Continue reading →

May 31, 2011-by the Herald Leader.

On election night, Gov. Steve Beshear talked about how he has stood with Kentucky families as they “dug deep” to endure an economic downturn and a “series of unforeseen and devastating weather catastrophes.”

Floods at the end of April nearly breached the wastewater impoundment operated by Domtar Paper in Hawesville, KY. Photo © 2011 John Blair

It has been one disaster declaration after another in recent years as floods, snow, wind and drought have pummeled Kentucky, disrupting business, destroying property and crops and endangering lives.

Not surprisingly, our coal-worshiping governor did not go on to make the connection being made by scientists: The documented increase in extreme weather is the predictable outcome of climate change brought on by the accumulation of heat-trapping fossil fuel emissions in the atmosphere.

Warmer oceans produce more evaporation; warmer air holds more moisture. The average temperature has risen by more than 2 degrees Fahrenheit over the last 50 years. This increases water vapor in the air; even small increases have a big impact on the size of storms because storms draw moisture from far beyond their locales.

Scientists are observing less rain falling in light precipitation events and more downpours, according to the U.S. Global Change Research Program. From 1958 to 2007, the amount of rainfall in the heaviest 1 percent of storms increased 31 percent on average in the Midwest and 20 percent in the Southeast. Heavier snowfalls are another consequence, as are stronger hurricanes, powered by extra moisture from warming oceans.

Also increasing in intensity and frequency are heat waves and droughts as weather patterns — along with plant and animal species — move northward. Kudzu has made it to Canada. Large storms also create conditions favorable to drought by depleting moisture in the atmosphere.

Scientists have too little data to draw conclusions about tornadoes, but warm, moist air near the surface drives supercell thunderstorms which are tornado precursors.

Climate change won’t be the end of the world, but it will exact a price in economic and human terms and create a host of new challenges. It already is. Just ask those flooded out by the Mississippi River or baking through chronic drought in Texas.

Climate change trends will become more pronounced without reductions in carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases. The biggest source of these gases is coal-fired power plants followed closely by transportation.

Yet what we hear from Beshear are rants about a “war on coal” and “get off our back” demands to federal environmental regulators. Continue reading →

One of nature's energy centers is the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. Sometimes nature explodes. Cairo, IL is where nature took over this week and residents there are being told to leave their homes due to massive flooding on both of those rivers. Date of Photo Noon 4/29/11. Photo © 2011 John Blair

May 1, 2011-by John Blair, valleywatch.net editor

Cairo, Illinois is still with us but huge “sand boils” are being reported in the levee that protects the community from the power of both the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. Cairo, in the center of this photo shot April 29th shortly after noon, is at the southern tip of Illinois and is also joined by bridges to both Kentucky and Missouri.

Residents of Cairo are being told to leave their homes due the floods occurring in both rivers. Nature bats last!

April 30, 2011-by John Blair, valleywatch.net editor.

Flooding at the confluence of the Ohio And Mississippi Rivers is a sight to behold. Cairo, Illinois can be seen just right of center in this photograph shot by John Blair today at 12:13 PM. The Ohio River flows off the picture to the right while the Mississippi River snakes its way to the north and west toward the background of this photo. © 2011 John Blair

A pair of barges sit down river from the confluence of the Ohio And Mississippi Rivers loaded with explosives that may be used to destroy a levee to remove pressure from another levee that protects the town of Cairo, IL, seen in this photo on April 30.

The decision whether to blow the Birds Point levee just out of this picture to the left has yet to be made while impacted parties in Missouri argue that their homes and lands should not be sacrificed while resident of Cairo hope the breach will happen so that pressure can be relieved in their small town just right of center in the above picture.

Flooding on both Rivers has created an interstate conflict of major proportions, pitting the governors of both Missouri and Illinois against one another as each seeks to protect their own citizens from nature’s harm.

Both levees were built in the aftermath of the great flood of 1937 which rose to levels even higher than this flood along the Ohio River in many places. However, the flood at Cairo is record setting in the rare circumstance that both Rivers flooded at the same time.

The levee protecting Cairo is sufficiently high to protect the town to a crest of 64 feet but officials with the US Army Corps of Engineers worry that the pressure of both Rivers and a sustained crest, lasting several days could inundate the town at the junction of Illinois, Kentucky and Missouri. The Ohio River is expected to crest in the next day at 60.5 feet, a foot above the previous record.

Sadly, more rain is in the forecast and it can actually be seen in the distance in this photograph taken close to 12:00 PM today.

Editors Note: Climate scientists have long predicted severe weather conditions that could cause massive flooding in one area while others experience similarly severe droughts. Of course, there is no way to prove that an single weather event is the result of climate change but when taken in total the evidence certainly is increasing that climate change is upon us now and not in the distant future.

April 22, 2011-by John Blair, valleywatch.net editor.

Forty-one years ago today my life changed although it took several years to discover just how much.

Earth Day 1970 was a tumultuous time. The protests of the 60s civil rights movement had been largely successful and similar actions to end the Viet Nam War were getting into full swing. America still had politicians who sought to better America instead of seeking to enrich themselves or feed their dubious ideologies.

Theta is the Greek symbol for the Earth. Earth Day 1970 unveiled the first Theta Flag which for about a decade symbolized the movement and unity behind Earth Day.

And so it was with the fledgling environmental “movement” that was taking hold in the aftermath of rivers on fire, dead zones in the Great Lakes and air pollution emergencies in cities on both coasts.

At the time, I was a commercial mortgage loan officer at a large metropolitan bank and generally oblivious to causes of the environment and its impacts on human health. Hell, I even smoked a couple of packs of cigarettes each day.

I remember seeing hippies passing out literature on the Circle in downtown Indianapolis but thinking that the problems that plagued places like New York and LA were not germane to sleepy Naptown.  Little did I now that Indiana was on the road to make those places look like weak step sisters in the overall scheme of things.

On the news that night I watched Huntley and Brinkley describe various actions that were taking place around the country to drive home the need to protect the Earth. One in particular really caught my eye. There on the tube was an entire new car, a Ford Pinto, I believe, being buried in a grave to symbolize the future death of the automobile due to its high levels of pollution.

That night, I went to a showing of the movie, No Blades of Grass that was projected on the side of a building on the Butler University campus. That apocalyptic film hit a nerve with me and I felt a real need to become engaged in saving the planet.

Actually, about the only thing I did was to quit throwing my cigarette butts out my car window but at least it was a start.

1970 Earth Day demonstrators in Washington, DC helped push the nation's political support for cleaning up the Earth and protecting natural resources.

Shortly after that, national pride and concern for our collective future motivated the passage of the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts, the Safe Drinking Water Act and the Endangered Species Act. It seemed that others were also awakened by those 1970 Earth Day actions.

1970 was a different time. People cared for their fellow man then. Most of us still embraced the idea that we were Americans first and individuals second, that we all had a stake in the future and thus rejoiced in our differences.

Sadly, today, Earth Day is mostly an opportunity for polluters to spend their way into the green hearts of America and a day that politicians completely ignore. In fact those protections that were passed with great support from both parties in 1970, are under assault by people who are shilling for the polluters under the banner of smaller government and less taxes.

By the Way, I did quit smoking cigarettes on December 31,  1978, well after I had become actively involved in trying to improve the health and environment of SW Indiana.

Happy Earth Day.

April 22, 2011-by John Blair, valleywatch.net editor. Photo© 2011 John Blair

HAPPY EARTH DAY!!!

Tulips are neat even when they are at the end of their blooming stage. I shot this one in near darkness, using an exceptionally high camera sensitivity which produced a grainy effect that actually seemed to work.

Valley Watch encourages everyone to carry their camera with them and to spend some time, stopping to smell/photograph the nature that abounds. If you get a good shot, feel free to send it to us and we might just publish it if we have time and room to do so.

April 19, 2011-by the Citizens Action Coalition of Indiana.

Testimony filed yesterday by Citizens Action Coalition in the proposed Indiana Gasification, LLC substitute natural gas plant (SNG) proceeding currently before the IURC included a letter from State Representative Win Moses (D, Ft. Wayne) urging the IURC to reject the proposed contract between Leucadia and the State of Indiana for the purchase of SNG.  Both CAC and Rep. Moses believe the contracts negotiated by the Indiana Finance Authority (IFA) fail to meet the objectives laid out in SEA423, particularly with respect to the guarantee of ratepayer savings.

SEA423, passed in 2009, allows the IFA to enter into 30 year contracts for purchase of SNG from Leucadia National Corporation who plans to build and ostensibly own a coal gasification plant proposed for Rockport, IN.  At the time, Rep. Moses was Chairman of the House Utilities Committee and was one of the House sponsors of the legislation.

“In summation, although I was open to the project and even sponsored legislation on behalf of it, I strongly urge the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission to reject the contract now in question in this cause.” wrote Rep. Moses. “As described in testimony by utilities and those representing ratepayers, the evidence strongly suggests, indeed is overwhelming, that the contract between the State of Indiana and Leucadia Corp. represents too great a risk for ratepayers and the economy of the state to bear.”

Kerwin Olson, Program Director for CAC, was highly critical of the Utility Consumer Counselor’s (OUCC) lack of analysis and failure to live up their duty of representing the public before the IURC.

“The OUCC is virtually silent on the issue of the SNG contract guaranteeing ratepayer savings as mandated in SEA423,” said Mr. Olson, “I fail to recognize how the OUCC can claim the contract meets the objectives of SEA423 if they did not necessarily analyze it with the interests of Indiana ratepayers in mind.”

Rep. Moses concludes his letter by stating: “The evidence strongly suggests that it is Leucadia’s profits that are being protected by the contract before the Commission, not the bank accounts of Hoosier ratepayers.  That was certainly not my intent when agreeing to hear the bill as Chairman of the House Committee on Commerce, Energy, & Utilities.”

A copy of the letter from Rep. Win Moses and the testimony of Kerwin Olson are available upon request

April 12, 2011-by John Blair, valleywatch.net editor.

Yesterday’s drenching rainfall added beauty to the night as bluebells (L) blossomed and fresh tulips (R) readied their opening to herald another Spring. The flowers were moist with the recent rain which added to their splendor.

WHat seems missing so far are any sighting of any sort of bee which usually add to to activity in the Valley Watch Garden. Photos © 2011 John Blair.

April 10, 2011-by John Blair valleywatch.net editor

For several weeks the land inside the “horseshoe bend” at Evansville was inundated by flood waters causing the River to ultimately rise to 43.5 feet. The Kentucky side of the River at Evansville is one giant farm field shaped like a horseshoe.

Waters receded over the last week and as the floodplain dries, it gets dusty.

Today, heavy sustained winds of more than 25 miles per hour are causing a real air pollution problem for people in Evansville as they blow across the sandy floodplain and create a shroud of airborne dust that makes it difficult for many to breathe.

Evansville remains in violation of the proposed annual standard and close to the limit for the 24 hour standard for fine particles but that are mostly caused by the numerous coal power plants in the region. Events like today’s are usually exempted  from the analysis that determines compliance with those health based standards.